Tuesday, September 14, 2010

A New way of calculating GDP and its implications for Theories

As proposed by Nordhaus, there should be more scientific way of national accounting for nonmarket accounts. The most important two things for me is 1)nonreproducible assets and 2) non-market activities. These two have implications for growth theory.
1) Oil-rich countries create noise in our data. They are indeed poor countries, since they produce less than what is being accounted for. Without this noise, it is likely that, when plotting growth rate with log of GDP per capita, the band at the wealthy end will be with almost no outliers (with the exception of Luxembourg). Indeed there is reason to kick them out of growth data all together, since they present a very different story from other countries.
2) Growth rate in poor countries might be over-estimated because part of the increase in GDP might result from transformation of nonmarket activites into market activities, thus weakening the case for convergence.

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