Friday, October 25, 2013

You Shall Not Crucify Mankind on [the] cross of Ignorance and Arrogance

There is no typo in the title, it is when ignorance and arrogance cross that I am referring to. That crossing is not "a cross of gold", by all means.

When I came to US, it was a humbling experience. Everyone seemed to know so much and display so much confidence when they discuss various things. I on the other hand, never felt confident enough to discuss anything. Then I realized that they do not know more than I do. The question becomes:Why don't you shut the f*** up and listen? the answer is, because we think we know it all.

As a student of economics, I think I still fail to understand so many issues---the meaning of an empirical test, the consequences of monetary policy,  the function of exchange rate, or the effect of health insurance. But I understand these issues more than the lay people. However, it is troubling to observe that the lay people have much more confidence in their interpretation/opinions of these issues.

The sad truth is that we human beings are not "noble in reason" or "infinite in faculty". We are far from being "like a god" "in apprehension". Our brain however, tend to think we are as perfect as Hamlet sees. Because we are like a god in apprehension, then we should have a consistent story. As a result, our brain constructs a consistent story based on limited information we have, by downplaying contradicting information. When we obtain new information, our brain confirms our original story if the new information is consistent, but tend to rationalize/distort/ignore the new information if it is not. After all, how can a god's judgement be false. It must be that the new information is wrong! This phenomenon is extensively documented in the "confirmation bias" in psychology. Things get worse from here. Our brains take in irrelevant information. For example when we evaluate a person's competence, we take into factor such as if he looks good. In an embarrassing study, researchers found that asking people rate people by looking at their picture, and these meaningless ratings predict election result very well (from local elections). Indeed, that is why newspapers like to include irrelevant information to stir up our emotion. Look at those shocking pictures! Are those pictures powerful because they convey much information or because they stir up strong feelings, that is sure to get entangled with your reasoning?

Indeed, what a crappy piece of work is a man!

So some anecdotes. I have some American guy tells me how I am wrong about what it is like living in China. But I have lived in China for more than 18 years! And he barely spent one year in China. wow!

I know you all have strong opinions, on lots of things. But you seriously do not know them all. How much do you seriously understand what health insurance is about when economics as a profession think they only scratched the surface? How could you think you are a competent judge of the territorial disputes between  China and the Philippines, by just reading a NYT article?

Fellow human beings, be humble. Admit you do not know it all. do not have so much faith in your story. Listen to those who might know more.


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