Thursday, November 3, 2016

Prediction on Bitcoin

I strongly believe one should leave a track record for their own predictions. In this way, they can be evaluated without selection bias. I am going to put down my first prediction. 
I believe bitcoin has no future. It is just a bubble. 
I will not go into the specific reasons why I think this way (no intention to write a 10-page blog).
I first discussed this two years ago. but today, I even begin to develop the suspicion that this might have been a fraud all alone. Here is what I wrote on quora:

I believe there is no future for bitcoin despite its current growth. It is more like the housing bubble before 2007, and will head for a collapse. It is not a viable currency as it is currently implemented. I think this is a modern form of the Mississippi bubble or South Sea Bubble.
If this is the case, I suspect this might be a fraud altogether. The Satoshi might be aware of the dismal future of bitcoin. He blew the bubble and rode the bubble to make profits (early speculation in bitcoin is very profitable when mining a blockchain creates good money and the competition is not fierce). If the thing do ultimately collapse, having ones’ name associated with this grand fraud is not optimal.
I would love to revisit this post 20 years from now and see how all played out.

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